There will only be enough synthetic fuels to power around 2% of all the cars on Europe’s roads by 2035, according to a new analysis based on the oil lobby’s data.
In light of the above, claims that an e-fuels exemption from the EU engine ban for new cars would help decarbonise the existing car fleet do not stand up, clean transport campaign group Transport and Environment (T&E) has argued.
T&E said e-fuels in cars are a Trojan Horse for oil companies and engine-makers to delay the transition to zero emission technologies. It called on EU lawmakers to resist industry pressure for an e-fuels loophole in the phase-out rules.
“E-fuels are presented as a carbon-neutral way to prolong the life of combustion engine technology. But the industry’s own data shows there will only be enough for a tiny fraction of cars on the road. Lawmakers should close the door to this Trojan Horse for the fossil fuel industry,” said Yoann Gimbert, e-mobility analyst at T&E.
According to T&E, lobby groups say that allowing sales of new combustion vehicles that run on synthetic fuels will help scale up the technology to make the existing car fleet climate neutral. However, the oil lobby’s own data shows there will not be enough e-fuel to power all cars in Europe.
The production of e-fuels, which are chemically similar to petrol and diesel, will still be in its infancy by the time of Europe’s planned phase-out of sales of internal combustion cars, T&E said. Just 5 million cars out of the EU’s projected fleet of 287 million could fully run on synthetic fuel in 2035, according to T&E’s analysis of the volumes forecasted by the industry.
The industry’s forecast is based on e-fuels produced in the EU, but its projection includes carbon captured from industrial emitters and it is not clear how much of the electricity would be certified 100% renewable. The number of cars that could run on synthetic fuels would be even lower if only carbon neutral e-fuels – those made entirely from additional renewable electricity and CO2 captured directly from the air – were used, said T&E.
“In Europe, e-fuels for cars would suck up renewable electricity needed for the rest of the economy,” said Gimbert. “It is also naive to assume that developing countries, some of whom lack power for their basic needs, would spare their renewables for e-fuels in Europe’s cars just to suit the vested interests of engine makers.”
Synthetic fuels are also a far less environmentally friendly solution for cars than battery-powered electric cars, T&E said. By 2030, an electric car will emit 53% less CO2 over its lifecycle than a car running on e-fuels, the most recent life cycle analysis confirms, it said.
EU lawmakers are currently finalising the rules for the proposed phase-out of combustion engines in 2035. The next round of negotiations will take place on 27 October. The UK is set to ban sales of new pure combustion-engine cars by 2030.