The global electric vehicle (EV) fleet is set to pass 116 million units in 2026, according to new figures from Gartner, which forecasts continued strong growth in both battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) despite waning government support and rising geopolitical pressures.
The technology insights firm expects the number of EVs on the road worldwide to grow 30 per cent year-on-year, even as several governments scale back subsidies, the United States imposes new tariffs on imported models, and cost-of-living pressures influence consumer spending.
The latest forecast, released on Wednesday 4 December, provides one of the clearest snapshots yet of the shifting dynamics in the global EV market. It also highlights the increasing importance of PHEVs in the passenger-car mix and underscores China’s continued dominance in global adoption.
Growth in Tougher Conditions
Speaking ahead of the report’s publication, Jonathan Davenport, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner, said that demand for electric vehicles remains resilient in spite of tougher policy and market conditions.
“Even with the U.S. government introducing tariffs on vehicle imports and many governments removing the subsidies and incentives for purchasing EVs, the number of EVs on the road is forecast to increase 30% in 2026,” Davenport said. “China is projected to account for 61% of the total EV installed base, and plug-in hybrids will see particularly strong growth as customers value the reassurance of a back-up petrol engine.”
The global installed base of EVs — spanning cars, buses, vans and heavy trucks — will grow from 89.5 million units in 2025 to 116.2 million units the following year. BEVs will continue to lead, increasing from around 59.5 million to more than 76.3 million in 2026. PHEVs, however, will grow at a slightly faster pace, rising 32 per cent year-on-year from approximately 30.1 million to nearly 39.8 million.
The figures suggest that while BEVs remain the dominant category, a significant share of consumers are shifting towards PHEVs, driven primarily by concerns around charging infrastructure reliability, long-distance range, and energy pricing volatility.
PHEVs Regain Momentum
The resurgence of PHEVs marks an important shift in the global EV landscape. Many markets—particularly in Europe—had been moving aggressively towards full battery-electric adoption, with governments phasing out plug-in hybrid incentives and tightening emissions rules. But with consumer confidence shaken by patchy fast-charging rollout and the higher upfront cost of BEVs, PHEVs have staged a comeback.
Gartner’s forecast reflects this pivot. While BEVs will still represent well over half of the EV fleet in 2026, plug-in hybrids are gaining meaningful traction. Davenport attributes this to customers “seeking more flexibility without fully relinquishing the benefits of electric driving”.
“In 2026, global ownership of plug-in hybrid EVs is expected to rise 32% year-over-year as customers value the reassurance of a back-up petrol engine for use, should they need it,” he said. This is particularly relevant in markets where charging networks remain inconsistent or where electricity prices have spiked during the energy transition.
The trend also mirrors a tactical shift by several automakers, who have slowed or delayed BEV-only product plans in favour of plug-in hybrid or mixed-powertrain strategies. PHEVs offer manufacturers a compliance pathway for emissions regulations while providing consumers with a less disruptive transition away from pure internal-combustion engines.
China Strengthens Its Dominance
Perhaps the most striking finding in Gartner’s latest outlook is China’s continued and overwhelming dominance of the global EV installed base. By 2026, the country is expected to account for 61 per cent of all EVs on the road worldwide.
China’s dominance is driven by several converging factors: a deep and vertically integrated battery supply chain, widespread affordability in domestic brands, and sustained (though increasingly targeted) government support. While Western markets debate the future of incentives and grapple with geopolitical uncertainty, China’s sprawling EV ecosystem continues to expand, with exports growing steadily even in the face of new trade barriers.
For global carmakers, this concentration presents both opportunity and risk. China remains the largest and most competitive EV market in the world, but its growing influence has accelerated political tensions—most notably in the United States and Europe, which have introduced or are considering tariffs to protect domestic industries.
Despite this, Gartner predicts that Chinese-built EVs—whether sold domestically or exported—will remain a major driver of global growth in 2026 and beyond.
A Market Maturing, Not Slowing
While critics in some regions have interpreted softening sales or reduced incentives as signs of an EV “plateau”, Gartner’s data indicates that the opposite is true: the market is maturing, diversifying, and becoming less dependent on government support.
The shift towards PHEVs, for example, signals pragmatism among consumers rather than disengagement. Research from multiple automotive analysts suggests that buyers are increasingly exploring electrification options that align with their driving habits, available infrastructure, and regional energy costs.
In many developing markets, the commercial EV segment—particularly electric buses and urban delivery vehicles—continues to expand rapidly as cities prioritise air-quality improvements and fleet operators seek long-term cost efficiencies. This segment forms a significant portion of the “EVs on the road” tally, though passenger cars still dominate overall volumes.
The forecast growth from 89.5 million to over 116 million EVs in a single year points to widespread electrification across both private and commercial use cases.
Charging Infrastructure: Still a Bottleneck
Despite the projected growth, charging-network deployment remains one of the main factors shaping consumer preference. In regions where fast-charging infrastructure is unreliable, overstretched or unevenly distributed, drivers are more likely to choose PHEVs.
Industry analysts say this is particularly evident in Europe, where charging rollout varies significantly between countries. The UK, for example, has expanded its public charging network rapidly but still faces regional disparities and competition for high-power chargers.
Gartner’s report does not directly forecast infrastructure growth, but Davenport emphasised that infrastructure improvements will be critical for BEVs to maintain their lead.
“Charging accessibility, speed and reliability all play a role in consumer confidence,” he said. “As infrastructure improves, BEVs will continue to gain share—but for now, PHEVs are providing customers with a level of reassurance that the charging landscape cannot always match.”
Policy Shifts and Tariffs Reshape the Global Market
Government policy remains another key variable influencing adoption. In the United States, new tariffs targeting imported EVs—particularly Chinese-built models—have the potential to reshape supply chains and pricing structures. The effectiveness of these policies remains to be seen, but Gartner notes that global EV adoption has continued to rise despite similar measures in the past.
In Europe, policymakers are renegotiating timelines for phasing out internal-combustion vehicle sales, with some governments slowing their transition plans in response to consumer concerns and industry lobbying. These changing political landscapes introduce uncertainty but have not materially dampened long-term demand trends.
According to Davenport, “Even with changing government policies and incentives, EVs are on a strong growth trajectory globally, with consumers increasingly opting for plug-in hybrids alongside fully electric vehicles.”
Industry Implications for 2026 and Beyond
Gartner’s figures will likely be studied carefully by automakers, suppliers and charging-infrastructure providers as they plan investments for the coming years. The rapid expansion of the EV fleet presents opportunities in battery manufacturing, software services, energy storage, fleet electrification, and smart-charging solutions.
However, the accelerating mix of BEVs and PHEVs complicates forecasting for charging demand, grid capacity, and aftermarket services. PHEV drivers charge less frequently and more variably, which could challenge planning for public and residential infrastructure.
For automakers, the rise of plug-in hybrids may offer short-term relief but risks diverting resources from long-term electrification strategies. Meanwhile, China’s dominance continues to reshape global competitiveness, supply chains and pricing.
Conclusion
Gartner’s 2026 Electric Vehicle Forecast paints a picture of a global EV market that is expanding rapidly—even in the face of policy shifts, tariff pressures and infrastructure challenges. With 116 million electric vehicles expected on the road next year, the transition to electrified transport is clearly accelerating, though not always in the way policymakers initially envisioned.
BEVs will remain the backbone of global electrification, but PHEVs are poised for a meaningful resurgence, driven by practical consumer concerns. China’s formidable lead shows no sign of weakening, while Western markets are adapting to a more complex, less subsidy-driven phase of EV adoption.
The full report, Forecast: Electric Vehicle Shipments, Worldwide, 2024-2032, will be available to Gartner clients from 4 December.
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