Recent developments in the automotive industry highlight the significant investments by major oil companies, such as Aramco, in ensuring the continued relevance of fossil fuels in transportation. These investments, often framed under the guise of sustainability, raise questions about their true environmental impact and the long-term strategies of these corporations. There was a fanfare surrounding the Olympics' decision to use hydrogen-powered Toyota Mirai cars in Paris, but that move has been slammed by a UK/US coalition of 120 scientists – who demand that future events use EVs instead. WhichEV decided to have a look at the ways in which huge ‘marketing' budgets are likely to be used to try and influence public opinion.
Aramco‘s acquisition of a 10% stake in HORSE Powertrain Limited, a venture with Renault Group and Geely, is a pivotal move in this context. Valued at €7.4 billion, HORSE aims to produce five million powertrain units annually, focusing on advanced technologies, including internal combustion engines (ICE), hybrid powertrains, and synthetic fuels. This investment aligns with Aramco's strategy to remain influential in the global energy transition by leveraging its expertise in synthetic fuels and hydrogen. Can we safely read that as ‘fossil fuels to continue being used'?
This partnership with Renault and Geely underscores a vision where the automotive industry collaborates on a blend of technologies to try and achieve lower emissions, without stopping processing of fossil-fuels. Critics would argue that such investments by fossil fuel giants might slow the transition to fully electric vehicles (EVs) by promoting alternative, lower-carbon combustion technologies.
Hydrogen Cars at the Paris Olympics
The Paris Olympics showcased 500 hydrogen-powered Toyota Mirai cars, positioning the event as environmentally conscious. However, 120 scientists from the US and UK have criticised this move, advocating for pure battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) instead. Their concerns revolve around the environmental and practical viability of hydrogen as a sustainable fuel (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry).
The Hydrogen Debate: Green, Grey, and Blue
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) like the Toyota Mirai might look to offer zero CO2 emissions and quick refuelling times. However, the production and use of hydrogen vary significantly in environmental impact:
- Green Hydrogen
Produced using renewable energy, it is truly environmentally friendly but constitutes only about 1% of global hydrogen production. If hydrogen is to success commercially AND ethically, then this is the only ‘colour' of fuel that should be discussed - Grey Hydrogen
Made from methane gas through steam reforming, it releases significant CO2 emissions - Blue Hydrogen
This process captures CO2 emissions from grey hydrogen production, but the technology is not widely proven and remains less common than green hydrogen. When you hear ‘capture', think ‘putting off the problem to some point in the future'
The scientists' letter highlighted that the majority of hydrogen used today is grey, thus not genuinely sustainable. The energy losses in hydrogen production, transportation, and usage further reduce its efficiency compared to direct battery charging for BEVs.
Market Realities and Infrastructure Challenges
The Toyota Mirai, despite being the leading hydrogen fuel cell car, has seen limited sales, with only 22,000 units sold globally by the end of 2022. In contrast, the Tesla Model Y sold 1.2 million units in 2023 alone. The limited number of hydrogen refuelling stations, such as the dozen of so in the UK – starkly contrasts with the expanding network of over 100,000 public EV charge points in the country.
Comparing Japan and the UK
Japan and the UK both aim to install 300,000 public EV charge points by 2030. However, given Japan's population of approximately 126 million compared to the UK's 67 million, the UK's target is more ambitious on a per capita basis. The UK's goal of 1 charge point per 223 people significantly surpasses Japan's 1 per 420, reflecting the UK's more aggressive approach to promoting EV adoption.
Japan's strategy includes a mix of EVs, fuel cell vehicles, plug-in hybrids and hybrids, which aims to provide more flexibility, but with far less focus solely on EVs. Conversely, the UK plans to transition entirely to pure EVs by 2035, backed by substantial investments in charging infrastructure and initiatives to make EVs more accessible and convenient. Europe is in step with the UK – and this has created massive challenges for car makers like Toyota.
Ironic, given that Toyota pioneered the use of electric motors/batteries in today's cars. Now they're shy?
Hydrogen's Potential and Challenges
Despite criticisms, hydrogen continues to attract investments – directly and indirectly from the Middle East oil producers and their associated. The EU invested €2.2 billion in hydrogen initiatives in early 2024, and BMW is experimenting with its iX5 Hydrogen model. The Extreme E racing series will switch to hydrogen power, rebranding as Extreme H in 2025. Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 plan includes significant investments in solar energy and (finally!) green hydrogen production, leveraging surplus renewable energy for hydrogen generation.
The use of hydrogen-powered vehicles at the Paris Olympics raised important questions about sustainable transportation's future. While hydrogen FCVs offer certain advantages, their reliance on grey hydrogen and the inherent inefficiencies in the hydrogen energy cycle pose significant challenges. In contrast, BEVs, with their growing infrastructure and market presence, present a more immediate and practical solution for reducing transportation emissions.
The debate over hydrogen versus battery-electric vehicles underscores the need for careful consideration of environmental impacts and the practicalities of different green technologies. Aramco's investments and the use of hydrogen cars at the Paris Olympics illustrate the ongoing efforts by traditional energy companies to remain relevant in a rapidly evolving automotive landscape. However, achieving long-term sustainability goals requires a balanced approach that prioritises genuinely green technologies and infrastructure development.
Right now, a movement to having renewables like wind and wave around the coast, personal generation with improved solar panels in many homes and other fuels to ‘balance the load when necessary', will give the UK (a) much more energy dependence from oil, (b) reduced prices and (c) a cleaner environment overall.
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