The volume of electric vehicle (EV) battery pack shipments will reach 30 million in 2027, from just 10 million in 2022, a recent study from Juniper Research has indicated. The study identified falling vehicle costs – often directly caused by government subsidies – and increasing awareness around the environmental impact of current mobility services as key drivers behind electric vehicle battery production growth.
Commercial Vehicles to Experience Greatest Growth
The research predicts that this growth will be most robust within the commercial segment, with battery pack shipments growing from 1.4 million in 2022 to over 7 million by 2027.
“Developing longer range vehicles by leveraging higher capacity battery packs will be critical to meeting expectations that foster commercial vehicle electrification, but will require extensive investment to develop new battery pack technologies,” said Damla Sat, one of the authors of the study.
Mass electrification of fleet vehicles is required for meeting corporate decarbonisation goals and will drive investment into electric vehicles from enterprises. In turn, this provides an opportunity for manufacturers to develop batteries designed for energy-intensive commercial use cases.
New Technologies Key to Unlocking Electric Vehicle Potential
One of the most pressing issues in the electric vehicle transition is the requirement for rare minerals in the battery production process. Cobalt, for example, is difficult to source, both in terms of cost and the ethics around procurement. Accordingly, the research recommends that manufacturers must rapidly move to new, higher capacity technologies including solid-state batteries to unlock energy-intensive use cases. The report however cautioned that “changes in technologies must continue to prioritise the sustainability goals” electrification is based upon.
The research predicts that for electric vehicles to reach mass adoption across commercial use cases, including heavy goods haulage and passenger transport, scaling the production of new battery technologies is essential. This includes solid-state batteries and new chemical mixes.